SUGGESTED READING
- Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell. Little, Brown and Company; 1st Edition (2008)
- Sources of power: how people make decisions, Gary Klein MIT Press (1998)
- The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Random House; First Edition (2007)
- The Righteous Mind, Jonathan Haidt. Pantheon; 1 edition ( 2012)
- Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman. Anchor Canada; Eighth edition (2013)
- Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious – Gerd Gigerenzer. Penguin books (2008)
LINKS & RESOURCES
The odds of triggering a potentially fatal avalanche for a range of hazard ratings
The Odds of Triggering – Bruce Jamieson
Grant Statham gives a simple framework to better understand risk, at TEDx Canmore
Risk — the anatomy of chance and uncertainty
A leading international avalanche expert, mountain guide and accomplished alpinist comes clean on bias.
Grant Statham on bias in decision making
POWDER magazine locks horns with ski cultures snow-safety mythology,
Op-Ed: Calling Bullsh!t
How do you increase the chances that the thinking behind a decision is valid?
Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman on de-biasing thinking in decision-making
The trouble, says Nobel Laureate psychologist Daniel Kahneman, is that we’re often confident in our intuitive judgments even when we have no idea what we’re doing.
Daniel Kahneman: The Trouble with Confidence
Much of the decision making knowledge base in professional mountain guiding has remained poorly understood, even for active practicing professionals.
The role of intuition in the decision process of ski guides – by Iain Stewart-Patterson
Emotion driven human factors inevitably influence our decisions and are potentially more beneficial than detrimental.
Yin, Yang, and You – Roger Atkins
This paper show why classical decision methods don’t always work.
Decision making for wilderness leaders: strategies, traps and teaching methods – Ian McCammon, Ph.D.
Are we born to be optimistic, rather than realistic? Tali Sharot shares new research that suggests our brains are wired to look on the bright side — and how that is usually good – but sometimes not.
Tali Sharot: The optimism bias
The Optimism Bias Experiment
Tali Sharot: Brain is to Blame
Bill boils it down at 4:30
Bill Mahrer puts the Optimism bias in a context of culture
Satan gets it mostly wrong, but its funny anyway
South Park and Satan tackle dopamine
This guy nails it
A slightly more nuanced explanation of dopamine
Super wicked problems – Richard J. Lazarus
There are three types of problem: Tame, Complex and Wicked. Be sure you know which type you are working on.
Three Types of Problems – Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Our subconscious makes our decisions for us, even if we are positive we are being analytical.
The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance – K. Anders Ericsson, Ralf Th. Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Romer
What You See is All There Is (WYSIATI)
Examining how schizophrenics handle their delusions gives us insight into how we handle our own.
David Dunning explains in detail the Dunning Kruger effect
The Dunning Kruger effect, well explained…. particularly as encountered on internet forums!
Heuristics get a bad rap but if you chose the right one, they are, quite literally, the smart way to go.
Gerd Gigerenzer explores the use of heuristics – deliberately selected “best” heuristics
Gerd Gigerenzer defines the limits and utility of rational choice, sub conscious heuristics ( intuition) and deliberately chosen heuristics (rules of thumb)
Why deliberate rational analysis is no better than spinning a bottle when the factors are largely unknown.
A great flick, and a great illustration of stereotyping and the clumsiness of common sense, even in every day circumstances.
CRASH – the movie, by Paul Haggis (2004)